The release of 2Q22 GDP data last week suggested the economy was in a “technical” recession as Real GDP declined for the second consecutive quarter. However, a look at Nominal GDP would suggest otherwise.
The gap between nominal and real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth is at its highest level in over 20 years. The difference in growth rates is substantial and properly reflects the impact inflation is having on the economy. However, we note that in the previous three recessions (2001, 2008 and 2020) both real and nominal GDP declined.
Further, corporate earnings are measured in nominal dollars, which would suggest corporate earnings are continuing to rise and may support market upside. And that would imply consumer demand is strong and the core economy is growing.
Big Picture: The economy is in a “technical” recession but consumer demand remains robust, labor markets tight, and personal balance sheets strong. Given these macro dynamics we continue to believe the Fed’s tightening is having its intended impact on controlling inflation without significantly dampening consumer activity. All of which points to an economy that appears likely to continue expanding, which we think will support markets in the back half of 2022.
This material is not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice, does not constitute a solicitation to buy, sell or hold a security or an investment strategy, and is not provided in a fiduciary capacity. The information provided does not take into account the specific objectives or circumstances of any particular investor, or suggest any specific course of action. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her advisors.
The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as market or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein by way of example. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible.
All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.
A word on risk
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Equity investments are subject to market risk or the risk that stocks will decline in response to such factors as adverse company news or industry developments or a general economic decline. Debt or fixed income securities are subject to market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk, call risk, tax risk, political and economic risk, and income risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Non-U.S. investments involve risks such as currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, lack of liquidity and differing legal and accounting standards. These risks are magnified in emerging markets. This report should not be regarded by the recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. It is important to review your investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs before choosing an investment style or manager.