Odds of a deliberate Fed-induced recession increased materially in 3Q, dragging markets lower. Should a recession occur in ’23 we think strong labor markets and consumer balance sheets can provide economic support and limit the magnitude of slowdown. Near-term markets are likely to remain volatile as the Fed aggressively combats inflation, and we suggest investors […]
Quarterly Newsletter
2Q22 Newsletter: Slowing down
Recession fears are mounting, growth is slowing, equity markets are in bear territory, and the Fed is aggressively raising rates to combat inflation. Despite the headwinds consumer and labor markets remain strong, which we think can help capital markets can stabilize in 2H22. KEY POINTS Normalizing growth and inflation Inflation may have peaked and if […]
1Q22 Newsletter: Spillover effect
It has been a violent start to 2022 marked by volatility, war in Europe, and economic uncertainty. While the US appears to be largely insulated from much of the Russia/Ukraine economic headwinds, the impact of higher energy prices is weighing on economic growth and compounding inflationary pressures, just as the Fed embarks on a rate […]
3Q21 Newsletter: A late-quarter stumble, but the recovery continues
Global growth optimism weakened in late-3Q sending equity markets lower and Treasury yields higher. That said we continue to see opportunity for growth in the global economy in the intermediate term as supply chain bottlenecks and labor market imbalances reset and adjust for persistently higher consumer demand. Inflationary pressure and fiscal uncertainty remain the biggest […]
2Q21 Newsletter: Reopening momentum outweighs inflation as equity markets make new highs
Equity markets reached new all-time highs in 2Q as the global economy continued to reopen. With widespread global vaccine rollouts investors are now looking past COVID and its impact on markets. To that extent the key concerns now are easing policy support and lingering inflation. To date inflationary concerns have largely been ignored by investors […]
1Q21 Newsletter: What a difference one year makes
The S&P 500 is up nearly 80% since March 23, 2020 (the COVID bear market bottom). The economic recovery is in full swing, and between stimulus checks, warm weather, and widespread vaccinations recovery momentum is likely to surge this summer; especially if the labor market recovery accelerates given reopening states and an uptick in services […]