Equity markets rebounded sharply in the first half of 2023 amid (unexpected) resilience in the US economy. Looking ahead we think strength can persist, but suggest investors rebalance equity exposure. KEY POINTS Resilient economy drives market rebound Exhibit 1:Key Markets Performance in 2Q23 At the beginning of 2023 we suggested a “post-pandemic new normal” economic […]
Quarterly Newsletter
1Q23 Newsletter: A Bumpy, but Strong, Start for Markets as the Economic Outlook Remains Uncertain
Markets finished 1Q higher after a bumpy ride in both equity and fixed income. Uncertainty is likely to persist as the most pressing economic questions around Fed policy, banking sector stability, inflation, and corporate earnings remain unanswered. KEY POINTS Banking sector turmoil, inflation and the Fed cloud the outlook Exhibit 1:Key Markets Performance in 1Q23 […]
2023 Outlook: Moving on
Turning the page and awaiting the consequences of 2022’s historic tightening cycle Introduction by Jonathan Dane, CFA To say markets were challenged in ’22 is an understatement. The combination of inflation, the Fed’s unwavering constitution to keep raising rates, the war in Ukraine, and uncertainty over the trajectory of the global economy all weighed on […]
3Q22 Newsletter: Aggressive Fed Policy Weighs on Markets
Odds of a deliberate Fed-induced recession increased materially in 3Q, dragging markets lower. Should a recession occur in ’23 we think strong labor markets and consumer balance sheets can provide economic support and limit the magnitude of slowdown. Near-term markets are likely to remain volatile as the Fed aggressively combats inflation, and we suggest investors […]
2Q22 Newsletter: Slowing down
Recession fears are mounting, growth is slowing, equity markets are in bear territory, and the Fed is aggressively raising rates to combat inflation. Despite the headwinds consumer and labor markets remain strong, which we think can help capital markets can stabilize in 2H22. KEY POINTS Normalizing growth and inflation Inflation may have peaked and if […]
1Q22 Newsletter: Spillover effect
It has been a violent start to 2022 marked by volatility, war in Europe, and economic uncertainty. While the US appears to be largely insulated from much of the Russia/Ukraine economic headwinds, the impact of higher energy prices is weighing on economic growth and compounding inflationary pressures, just as the Fed embarks on a rate […]