Market Insight

The importance of the US consumer for further market appreciation is a key belief of ours, and a significant driver of the US economy. With the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic starting to stabilize stabilizing it’s important to watch unemployment and consumer sentiment trends closely, as we believe these indicators can provide insight into the […]

As long-term investors we are constantly studying the past so that we may learn from previous market environments and apply that knowledge going forward. However, relying too much on the past to dictate the future can be problematic, as the past rarely repeats itself the same way in the future. Similarities between past events and […]

Gold price movements are complicated to predict and tend to be tied to a multitude of factors including interest rates, currency movements, inflation, and even economic sentiment. Over short periods of time gold can outperform the broader market, although over longer periods it tends to underperform. That said, historically gold has provided a hedge against […]

Total business and non-business bankruptcy filings for 1H20 are down, even in the midst of high unemployment and future economic uncertainty. Historically bankruptcies peak shortly after recessions, but this time we think bankruptcies may peak later given the amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus injected into the economy following the COVID-19 pandemic. Bankruptcies filings in […]

Index concentration matters and rising concentration in the S&P has raised concerns over market bubbles, spurring comparisons to the tech bubble. And similar to 1999, right now the largest market cap stocks are technology stocks, which also happen to be where investors and markets are most focused. In our view while the majority of the […]