The release of 2Q22 GDP data last week suggested the economy was in a “technical” recession as Real GDP declined for the second consecutive quarter. However, a look at Nominal GDP would suggest otherwise. QUICK TAKE The gap between nominal and real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth is at its highest level in over 20 years. […]
Equity indices have sharply declined from their post-COVID highs and economic growth optimism is waning. We recap the market’s path since COVID and highlight five economic data points below that encompass this volatility, and how they have changed since the beginning of 2020. Net-net, while equity markets have sold off sharply and inflation remains high, […]
The housing market is on fire as home prices continue to rise, even as lumber costs come down. A quick look at the data behind this housing market suggests a strong consumer behind the demand, which leads us to believe a meaningful price correction in housing is unlikely. QUICK TAKE During the last housing bubble […]
Over the past decade young investors entering the market for the first time (e.g. millennials and gen-z) have experienced staggering market returns nearing 20% annualized in public equities, and returns well above that in crypto investments and monetization of stock options through IPOs. And these record rallies in cryptoassets, technology stocks, and IPOs have led […]
Retail sales are jumping, workers are returning to offices, and services sector businesses are ramping up for a summer surge. The market is up over 11% YTD, but we see reasons to remain bullish, one of them being widening stock participation in the rally. QUICK TAKE Last year the 10 largest stocks in the S&P […]
In the year following the global COVID shutdown markets have rebounded massively, with many indices experiencing their single largest rolling one year gain. hese levels of returns highlight not just the market’s optimism for the future, but also why it is important for long-term investors to maintain their discipline, stay invested, and take advantage of strategic risk taking opportunities.