Our Thoughts
We produce regular and timely commentary on the markets and economy.
Inflation is here – now what?
Inflation is here. The question is no longer “if” inflation will arrive- instead, it’s how long will it last. We see evidence that the recent spike in inflation is not transitory, and will last into 2022.
Since 1954 Capital Gains Tax Policy Hasn’t Driven Markets
President Biden’s proposal for tax hikes on corporations and wealthy individuals is creating investor uncertainty, especially as it relates to the capital gains tax increase. To understand the potential impact we analyzed capital gains tax changes going back to 1954, and the associated stock market impact. Our analysis suggests, 1) capital gains tax policy doesn’t […]
Room for the S&P 500 to Run
Retail sales are jumping, workers are returning to offices, and services sector businesses are ramping up for a summer surge. The market is up over 11% YTD, but we see reasons to remain bullish, one of them being widening stock participation in the rally. QUICK TAKE Last year the 10 largest stocks in the S&P […]
1Q21 Newsletter: What a difference one year makes
The S&P 500 is up nearly 80% since March 23, 2020 (the COVID bear market bottom). The economic recovery is in full swing, and between stimulus checks, warm weather, and widespread vaccinations recovery momentum is likely to surge this summer; especially if the labor market recovery accelerates given reopening states and an uptick in services […]
Equity Markets & COVID: 1 Year Later
In the year following the global COVID shutdown markets have rebounded massively, with many indices experiencing their single largest rolling one year gain. hese levels of returns highlight not just the market’s optimism for the future, but also why it is important for long-term investors to maintain their discipline, stay invested, and take advantage of strategic risk taking opportunities.
Implications of Adding Bitcoin (Crypto Currencies) to Traditional Portfolios
As Bitcoin (and other crypto currencies) push to new all-time highs we re-examine the characteristics of the asset itself it, as well as its historical impact on a diversified portfolio. For the purposes of this analysis we focused solely on Bitcoin given the (relative) maturity of its institutional markets, the multiple vehicles for investing (direct, […]
