3Q22 Newsletter: Aggressive Fed Policy Weighs on Markets
Odds of a deliberate Fed-induced recession increased materially in 3Q, dragging markets lower. Should a recession occur in ’23 we think strong labor markets and consumer balance sheets can provide economic support and limit the magnitude of slowdown. Near-term markets are likely to remain volatile as the Fed aggressively combats inflation, and we suggest investors […]
Five Things to do Before Transitioning Your Business
Whether selling a business to a third-party, transitioning ownership to your children, or stepping back from day-to-day operations, it’s important you and your business are ready for the transition. We recently put together a list of five key things to do before you start to transition your business. Read the full article at the link […]
Robust nominal GDP growth suggests a recession isn’t here
The release of 2Q22 GDP data last week suggested the economy was in a “technical” recession as Real GDP declined for the second consecutive quarter. However, a look at Nominal GDP would suggest otherwise. QUICK TAKE The gap between nominal and real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth is at its highest level in over 20 years. […]
COVID – 2 Years Later (in Charts)
Equity indices have sharply declined from their post-COVID highs and economic growth optimism is waning. We recap the market’s path since COVID and highlight five economic data points below that encompass this volatility, and how they have changed since the beginning of 2020. Net-net, while equity markets have sold off sharply and inflation remains high, […]
2Q22 Newsletter: Slowing down
Recession fears are mounting, growth is slowing, equity markets are in bear territory, and the Fed is aggressively raising rates to combat inflation. Despite the headwinds consumer and labor markets remain strong, which we think can help capital markets can stabilize in 2H22. KEY POINTS Normalizing growth and inflation Inflation may have peaked and if […]
3 Tips for Surviving a Bear Market
On June 13 the S&P 500 officially entered a bear market when it closed at 3750, a decline of nearly 22% from its January 3, 2022 high. Since then market volatility has spiked amid uncertainty over the direction of the economy and if the Fed can avoid causing a recession as it combats inflation. Living […]