Robust nominal GDP growth suggests a recession isn’t here
The release of 2Q22 GDP data last week suggested the economy was in a “technical” recession as Real GDP declined for the second consecutive quarter. However, a look at Nominal GDP would suggest otherwise. QUICK TAKE The gap between nominal and real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth is at its highest level in over 20 years. […]
COVID – 2 Years Later (in Charts)
Equity indices have sharply declined from their post-COVID highs and economic growth optimism is waning. We recap the market’s path since COVID and highlight five economic data points below that encompass this volatility, and how they have changed since the beginning of 2020. Net-net, while equity markets have sold off sharply and inflation remains high, […]
2Q22 Newsletter: Slowing down
Recession fears are mounting, growth is slowing, equity markets are in bear territory, and the Fed is aggressively raising rates to combat inflation. Despite the headwinds consumer and labor markets remain strong, which we think can help capital markets can stabilize in 2H22. KEY POINTS Normalizing growth and inflation Inflation may have peaked and if […]
3 Tips for Surviving a Bear Market
On June 13 the S&P 500 officially entered a bear market when it closed at 3750, a decline of nearly 22% from its January 3, 2022 high. Since then market volatility has spiked amid uncertainty over the direction of the economy and if the Fed can avoid causing a recession as it combats inflation. Living […]
Market Update: The world only ends once (and it hasn’t happened yet)
The world is filled with uncertainty right now. The ongoing war in Ukraine is driving food and energy prices higher around the world, China’s lockdowns are compounding supply chain pressures, and the Fed’s aggressive stance to combat inflation has the potential to drive the US economy into recession. For investors this level of volatility can […]
1Q22 Newsletter: Spillover effect
It has been a violent start to 2022 marked by volatility, war in Europe, and economic uncertainty. While the US appears to be largely insulated from much of the Russia/Ukraine economic headwinds, the impact of higher energy prices is weighing on economic growth and compounding inflationary pressures, just as the Fed embarks on a rate […]